COVID-19 modeling approach

Our COVID modeling approach is based on the software package Covasim, developed in partnership with the Institute for Disease Modeling, which is open source and available on GitHub. The model uses demographic data, setting-specific contact data, and global COVID-19 disease parameter estimates. It is also linked with an interface developed by Microsoft, that can account for macroeconomic impact of different policy decisions on industries. The model is easily adaptable to different settings and has been applied to countries and cities in North and South America, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific.

COVID-19 materials

  |  COVID-19 applications   |  Impact of COVID-19 on HIV   |  Impact of COVID-19 on TB   |  Covasim model

COVID-19 applications

COVID-19 mathematical modelling of resurgence risk: estimating risks associated with early reopening in Victoria

Abeysuriya R., Delport D., Hellard M.E., Scott N. (2020)

Burnet Institute [PDF]

Modelling the impact of reducing control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in a low transmission setting

Scott N., Palmer A., Delport D., Abeysuriya R., Stuart R.M., Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Klein D., Sacks-Davis R., Heath K., Hainsworth S., Pedrana A., Stoove M., Wilson D.P., Hellard M.E. (2020)

Medical Journal of Australia

Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study

Panovska-Griffiths J., Kerr C.C., Stuart R.M., Mistry D., Klein D.J., Viner R.M., Bonell C. (2020)

Lancet Child & Adolescent Health [PDF]

The role of masks in reducing the risk of new waves of COVID-19 in low transmission settings: a modeling study

Stuart R.M., Abeysuriya R.G., Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Klein D.J., Gray R., Hellard M.E., Scott N. (2020)

Pre-print [PDF]

Robust test and trace strategies can prevent COVID-19 resurgences: a case study from New South Wales, Australia

Stuart R.M., Abeysuriya R.G., Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Klein D.J., Gray R., Hellard M.E., Scott N. (2020)

Pre-print [PDF]

Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine

Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Stuart R.M., Rosenfeld R., Hart G., Núñez R.C., Selvaraj P., Cohen J.A., Abeysuriya R.G., George L., Hagedorn B., Jastrzębski M., Fagalde M., Duchin J., Famulare M., Klein D.J. (2020)

Pre-print [PDF]

Schools are not islands: Balancing COVID-19 risk and educational benefits using structural and temporal countermeasures

Cohen J.A., Mistry D., Kerr C.C., Klein D.J. (2020)


The potential contribution of face coverings to the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools and broader society in the UK: a modelling study

Panovska-Griffiths J., Kerr C.C., Waites W., Stuart R.M., Mistry D., Foster D., Klein D.J., Viner R., Bonnell C. (2020)


Impact of COVID-19 on HIV

Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models

Jewell B.L., Mudimu E., Stover J., ten Brink D., Phillips A.N., Smith J.A., Martin-Hughes R., Teng Y., Glaubius R., Mahiane S.G., Bansi-Matharu L., Taramusi I., Chagoma N., Morrison M., Doherty M., Marsh K., Bershteyn A., Hallett T.B., Kelly S.L.; HIV Modelling Consortium (2020)

Lancet HIV [PDF]

Impact of COVID-19 on TB

Tuberculosis in Indonesia: epidemic projections and opportunities to accelerate control: findings from an Optima TB analysis


Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group [PDF]

Covasim model methods

Covasim: an agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions

Kerr C.C., Stuart R.M., Mistry D., Abeysuriya R.G., Hart G., Rosenfeld K., Selvaraj P., Nunez R.C., Hagedorn B., George L., Izzo A., Palmer A., Delport F., Bennette C., Wagner B., Chang S., Cohen J.A., Panovska-Griffiths J., Jastrzebski M., Oron A.P., Wenger E., Famulare M., Klein D.J. (2020)

Pre-print [PDF]