Journal articles
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2021
The risks and benefits of providing HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic
Stover, J., Kelly, S.L., Mudimu, E., Green, D., Smith, T., Taramusi, I., Bansi-Mantharu, L.,
Martin-Hughes, R., Phillips, A.N., Bershteyn, A. (2021)
PLoS One [PDF]
2020
Costs of providing HIV care and optimal allocation of HIV resources in Guyana
Suraratdecha, C., Stuart, R.M., Edwards, M., Moore, R., Liu, N., Wilson, D.P., Albalak, R. (2020)
PLoS One [PDF]
Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of
occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study
Panovska-Griffiths, J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Mistry, D., Klein, D.J., Viner, R.M.,
Bonell, C. (2020)
Lancet Child & Adolescent Health [PDF]
Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19:
results from multiple models
Jewell, B., Mudimu, E., Stover, J. et al. for the HIV Modelling consortium (2020)
Lancet HIV [PDF]
,
Appendix [PDF]
2019
The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention
Stuart, R.M., Kelly, S.L., Kerr, C.C., Martin-Hughes R., and Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33:1949–1956 [PDF]
Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions
Kedziora, D.J., Stuart, R.M., Pearson, J., Latypov, A., Dierst-Davies, R., Duda, M., Avaliani, N.,
Wilson, D.P. and Kerr, C.C. (2019)
BMC Public Health, 19:1509 [PDF]
What is the impact of a 20% funding cut in international HIV aid from the United States?
ten Brink, D., Martin-Hughes, R., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33(8):1408-1408 [PDF]
Applying the 'no-one worse off' criterion to design Pareto efficient HIV responses in Sudan
and Togo
Stuart, R.M., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Grobicki, L., Skordis, J., Kerr, C.C.,
Kedziora, D.J., Martin-Hughes, R., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33(7):1247-1252 [PDF]
2018
A tale of two countries: Progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia
Marukutira, T., Stoové, M., Lockman, S., Mills, L.A., Gaolathe, T., Lebelonyane, R., Jarvis, J.N.,
Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P., Luchters, S., Crowe, S.M., Hellard, M. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190 [PDF]
Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency (HIV) targets will not be enough to achieve the HIV
incidence reduction target in Australia
Scott, N., Stoové, M., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P., Hellard, M.E. (2018)
Clin Infect Dis, 66(7):1019-1023 [PDF]
Optima attempts to objectively and pragmatically assist countries meet their targets most
efficiently and effectively
Wilson, D.P., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.J. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190 [PDF]
Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Men Who Have Sex
with Men in Two Hospitals of Thailand
Suraratdecha, C., Stuart, R., Manopaiboon, C., Green, D., Lertpiriyasuwat, C., Wilson, D.,
Pavaputanon, P., Visavakum, P., Monkongdee, P., Khawcharoenporn, T., Tharee, P.,
Kittinunvorakoon, C., Martin, M. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25129 [PDF]
Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better
targeting of nutrition-related interventions
Pearson, R., Killedar, M., Petravic, J., Kakietek, J.J., Scott, N., Grantham, K.L.,
Stuart, R.M., Kedziora, D.J., Kerr, C., Skordis-Worrall, J., Shekar, M., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
BMC Public Health, 18(1):384 [PDF]
How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23
countries
Stuart, R.M., Grobicki, L., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Skordis-Worrall, J., Keiser, O.,
Estill, J., Baranczuk, Z., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Kelly, S.L., Reporter, I., Kedziora, D.J.,
Shattock, A.J., Petravic, J., Hussain, S.A., Grantham, K.L., Gray, R.T., Yap, X.F.,
Martin-Hughes, R., Benedikt, C.J., Fraser-Hurt, N., Masaki, E., Wilson, D.J., Gorgens, M.,
Mziray, E., Cheikh, N., Shubber, Z., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25097 [PDF]
The global Optima HIV allocative efficiency model: targeting resources in efforts to end
AIDS
Kelly, S.L., Martin-Hughes, R., Stuart, R.M., Yap, X.F., Kedziora, D.J., Grantham, K.L.,
Hussain, S.A., Reporter, I., Shattock, A.J., Grobicki, L., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H.,
Skordis-Worrall, J., Baranczuk, Z., Keiser, O., Estill, J., Petravic, J., Gray, R.T.,
Benedikt, C.J., Fraser, N., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
Lancet HIV, 5(4):e190-e198 [PDF]
Optimization by Adaptive Stochastic Descent
Kerr, C.C., Dura-Bernal, S., Smolinski, T.G., Chadderdon, G.L., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
PLoS One13(3), e0192944 [PDF]
The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modeling the impact of achieving the
fast-track targets and what it will take to get there
Stuart, R.M., Fraser-Hurt, N., Kerr, C.C., Mabusela, E., Madi, V., Mkhwanazi, F. Pillay, Y.
Barron, P., Muzah, B., Matsebula, T., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2018).
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25068 [PDF]
2017
Getting it right when budgets are tight: using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize
responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics
Stuart, R.M., Kerr, C.C., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Estill, J., Grobicki, L., Baranczuk, Z.,
Prieto, L., Montañez, V., Reporter, I., Gray, R.T., Skordis-Worrall, J., Keiser, O.,
Cheikh, N., Boonto, K., Osornprasop, S., Lavadenz, F., Benedikt, C.J., Martin-Hughes, R.,
Hussain, A., Kelly, S.L., Kedziora, D.J., Wilson, D.P. (2017)
PLoS One, 12(10):e0185077 [PDF]
Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right
interventions in the right locations
Scott, N., Hussain, S.A., Martin-Hughes, R., Fowkes, F.J.I., Kerr, C.C., Pearson, R.,
Kedziora, D.J., Killedar, M., Stuart, R.M., Wilson, D.P. (2017)
Malaria Journal, 16:368 [PDF]
Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission
by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok
Kroon, E.D.M.B., Phanuphak, N., Shattock, A.J., Fletcher, J.L.K., Pinyakorn, S.,
Chomchey, N., Akapirat, S., de Souza, M.S., Robb, M.L., Kim, J.H.,van Griensven, F. ,
Ananworanich, J., Wilson, D.P. on behalf of the RV254/SEARCH 010 Study Group. (2017)
J Int AIDS Society, 20:21708 [PDF]
2016
Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets by combining improved ART procurement
mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies
Shattock, A.J., Benedikt, C., Bokazhanova, A., Đurić, P., Petrenko, I., Ganina, L.,
Kelly, S.L., Stuart, R.M., Kerr, C.C., Vinichenko, T., Zhang, S., Hamelmann, C., Manova, M.,
Masaki, E., Wilson, D.P., Gray, R.T. (2016)
PLoS One, 12(2) [PDF]
Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject
drugs
Benedikt, C., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P. on behalf of the Optima Consortium.
(2016)
Int J Drug Policy, 38:73-80 [PDF]
Optimizing HIV/AIDS resources in Armenia: increasing ART investment and examining HIV
programs for seasonal migrant laborers.
Kelly, S.L., Shattock, A.J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Papoyan, A., Grigoryan, T.,
Hovhannisyan, R., Grigoryan, S., Benedikt, C., Wilson, D.P. (2016).
J Int AIDS Society, 19:20772 [PDF]
Local responses to local epidemics for national impact need advanced spatially-explicit
tools
Grantham, K.L., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
AIDS, 30(9):1481-1482 [PDF]
In the interests of time: improving HIV allocative efficiency modeling via optimal
time-varying allocations
Shattock, A.J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Masaki, E., Fraser, N., Benedikt, C.,
Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P., Gray, R.T. (2016)
J Int AIDS Society, 19:20627 [PDF]
Projecting the epidemiological effect, cost-effectiveness and transmission of HIV drug
resistance in Vietnam associated with viral load monitoring strategies
Pham, Q.D., Wilson, D.P., Nguyen, T.V., Do, N.T., Truong, L.X., Nguyen, L.T., Zhang, L. (2016)
J Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 71(5):1367-1379 [PDF]
2015
The funding landscape for HIV in Asia and the Pacific
Stuart, R.M., Lief, E., Donald, B., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
J Int AIDS Society, 18:20004 [PDF]
Sustainable HIV Treatment in Africa through Viral Load-Informed Differentiated Care
Working Group on Modelling of ART Monitoring Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa
(Phillips, A., Shroufi, A., Vojnov, L., Cohn, J., Roberts, T., Ellman, T., Bonner, K.,
Rousseau, C., Garnett, G., Cambiano, V., Nakagawa, F., Ford, D., Bansi-Matharu, L., Miners, A.,
Lundgren, J., Eaton, J., Parkes-Rotanshi, R., Katz, Z., Maman, D., Ford, N., Vitoria, M.,
Doherty, M., Dowdy, D., Nichols, B., Murtagh, M., Wareham, M., Palamountain, K., Musanhu, C.C.,
Stevens, W., Katzenstein, D., Ciaranello, A., Barnabas, R., Braithwaite, S., Bendavid, E.,
Nathoo, K.J., van de Vijver, D., Wilson, D., Holmes, C., Bershteyn, A., Walker, S.,
Raizes, E., Jani, I., Nelson, L., Peeling, R., Terris-Prestholt, F., Murungu, J.,
Mutasa-Apollo, T., Hallett, T., Revill, P.). (2015)
Nature, 7580(528):S68-S76 [PDF]
Re-orienting the HIV response in Niger towards sex work interventions: from better
evidence to targeted and expanded practice
Fraser, N., Kerr, C.C., Harouna, Z., Alhousseini, Z., Cheikh, N., Gray, R., Shattock, A., Wilson,
D.P., Haacker, M., Shubber, Z., Masaki, E., Karamoko, D., Görgens, M. (2015)
JAIDS, 68:S213–S220 [PDF]
Scaling up HIV treatment for MSM in Bangkok: what does it take? -- a modelling and costing
study
Zhang, L., Phanuphak, N., Henderson, K., Nonenoy, S., Srikaew, S., Shattock, A., Kerr, C.C., Omune,
B., van Griensven, F., Osornprasop, S., Oelrichs, R., Ananworanich, J., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
Lancet HIV, 2:e200–07 [PDF]
Optima: a model for HIV epidemic analysis, program prioritization, and resource
optimization
Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Gray, R.T., Shattock, A., Fraser-Hurt, N., Benedikt, C., Haacker, M.,
Berdnikov, M., Mahmood, A.M., Jaber, S.A., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
JAIDS, 69(3): 365-376 [PDF]
The cost-effectiveness of harm reduction
Wilson, D.P., Donald, B., Shattock, A.J., Wilson, D., Fraser-Hurt, N. (2015)
Int J Drug Policy, 26(S1):S5-S11 [PDF]
2014
Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult
antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12
mathematical models
Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A.C.,
Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bärnighausen,
T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily, M-C., Chang, S.T., Cohen, T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa,
C., Lundgren, J., Martin, N.K., Mountain, E., Pham, Q.D., Pickles, M., Phillips, A., Platt, L.,
Pretorius, C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson,
D.P., Zhang, L., Bandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N.,
Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Easterbrook, P., Hirnschall, G., Hallett, T.B. (2014)
The Lancet Global Health 2:e23-34 [PDF]
[Appendix]
Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy expansion strategies in Vietnam
Tran, D.A., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Shakeshaft, A., Ngo, A.D., Doran, C. (2014)
AIDS Patient Care and STDs, Jul;28(7):365-71 [PDF]
Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need
to shift funding allocations towards priority populations
Craig, A.P., Thein, H.H., Zhang, L., Gray, R.T., Henderson, K., Wilson, D., Gorgens, M.,
Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Journal of the International AIDS Society, 17:18822 [PDF]
How should HIV programmes respond to evidence for the benefits of earlier treatment
initiation? A combined analysis of twelve mathematical models
Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A.,
Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E.,
Vickerman, P., Bakker, R., Bärnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily M.-C.,
Chang S.T., Cohen T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin N.K.,
Mikkelsen E., Mountain E., Pham Q.D., Pickles M., Phillips A., Platt L., Pretorius C.,
Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., de Vlas, S.J., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G.,
Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Blandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N.,
Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Shaffer, N., Easterbrook, P.J., Hirnschall, G., Hallett T.B.
(2014)
Lancet Global Health, 2:e23-34 [PDF]
Predicting the population impact of increased HIV testing and treatment in Australia
Jansson, J., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Sexual Health, 11:146–154 [PDF]
2013
HIV service capacity: identifying current and future areas of clinical shortage
Mallitt, K.A., Jansson, J., Wand, H., Crooks, L., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
Sexual Health, 11(1):17-23 [PDF]
2012
The potential cost and benefits of raltegravir in simplified second-line therapy among HIV
infected patients in Nigeria and South Africa
Schneider, K., Nwizu, C., Kaplan, R., Anderson, J., Wilson, D.P., Emery, S., Cooper, D.A.,
Boyd, M.A. (2012)
PLoS One, 8(2):e54435 [PDF]
Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention
planning
Case, K.K., Ghys, P.D., Gouws, E., Eaton, J.W., Borquez, A., Stover, J., Cuchi, P.,
Abu-Raddad, L.J., Garnett, G.P., Hallett, T.B. on behalf of the HIV Modelling Consortium
(Atun, R., Auvert, B., Bacaer, N., Barnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Boily, M.-C., Delva, W.,
Eckhoff, P., Foss, A., Heijne, J., Klein, D.J., Low, N., Lowndes, C.M., Mishra, S., Pretorius, C.,
Welte, A., White, P., Williams, B., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P., Zaba, B., Prudden H.). (2012)
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90:831-838
Demand for HIV clinical services is increasing in Australia but supply is decreasing
Mallitt, K.A., Jansson, J., Crooks, L., McGuigan, D., Wand, H., Wilson, D.P. (2012)
Sexual Health, 10(1):43-46 [PDF]
HIV Treatment as Prevention: Models, Data, and Questions toward Evidence-Based
Decision-Making
The HIV Modelling Consortium Treatment as Prevention Editorial Writing Group
(Barnighausen, T., Becker, S., Bendavid, E., Bershteyn, A., Blandford, J., Boily, M.-C., Burns, D.,
Cambiano, V., Cohen, M.S., Cremin, I., Delva, W., Dye, C., Eaton, J.W., Egger, M., Fraser, C.,
Galai, N., Garnett, G., Ghys, P.D., Hallett, T.B., Heaton, L., Holmes, C.B., Hontelez, J.,
Jewell, B., Keiser, O., Klein, D., Lima, V., Long, E., Lyerla, R., Marais, C., Meng, F.,
Meyer-Rath, G., Miller, W.C., Muraguri, N., Nichols, B.E., Nigmatulina, K.R., Over, M., Padian, N.,
Phillips, A., Pretorius, C., Rousseau, C., Salomon, J., Sangrujee, N., Serwadda, D., Tanser, F.,
Vesga, J.F., Vickerman, P., Walker, D., Wang, R., Welte, A., White, R.G., Williams, B.,
Wilson, D.P., Wilson, D., Zaba B.). (2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001259 [PDF]
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs in Australia.
Kwon J.A., Anderson J., Kerr C.C., Thein H.H., Zhang L., Iversen J., Dore G.J., Kaldor J.M., Law
M.G., Maher L., Wilson D. (2012)
AIDS 26(17):2201-10 [PDF]
[appendix]
Projected demographic profile of people living with HIV in Australia: planning for an older
generation
Jansson, J., Wilson, D.P. (2012)
PLoS One, 7(8):e38334 [PDF]
HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling For Public
Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation
Delva, W., Wilson, D.P., Abu-Raddad, L., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D., Hallett, T.B., Welte, A.
(2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001239 [PDF]
2011
Expected epidemiological impacts of introducing an HIV vaccine in Thailand: a model-based
analysis
Schneider, K., Kerr, C.C., Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
Vaccine, 29:6086-6091 [PDF]
Expected epidemiological impact of the introduction of a partially effective HIV vaccine
among men who have sex with men in Australia
Gray, R.T., Ghaus, M.H., Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
Vaccine, 29:6125-6129 [PDF]
Economic evaluation of monitoring virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in
HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings
Schneider, K., Puthanakit, T., Kerr, S., Law, M.G., Cooper, D.A., Donovan, B., Phanuphak, N.,
Sirisanthana, V., Ananworanich, J., Ohata, J., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
AIDS, 25:1143-1151 [PDF]
2010
How low can you go: The impact of a modestly effective HIV vaccine compared with male
circumcision
Kaldor, J.M., Wilson, D.P. (2010)
AIDS, 24:2573-2578 [PDF]
2009
What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?
Gray, R.T., Heymer, K.J., Hoare, A., Kwon, J.A., Thein, H.H., Lote, N., Siba, P., Saramony, S.,
Saphonn, V., Worth, H., Kaldor, J.M., Wilson, D.P. (2009)
Current HIV Research, 7:656-665 [PDF]
Cost-effectiveness of adult circumcision for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in a
resource-rich setting
Anderson, J.S., Wilson, D.P., Templeton, D.J., Grulich, A.E., Carter, R., Kaldor, J.M. (2009)
Journal of Infectious Disease, 200:1803-1812 [PDF]
The impact of needle and syringe programs on HIV and HCV transmissions in injecting drug
users in Australia: a model-based analysis
Kwon, J.A., Iversen, J., Maher, L., Law, M.G., Wilson, D.P. (2009)
J AIDS, 51(4):462-469 [PDF]
2008
Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness? A model-based analysis
Wilson, D.P., Law, M.G., Grulich, A.E., Cooper, D.A., Kaldor, J.M. (2008)
The Lancet, 372:314-20 [PDF]
The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV
epidemics
Wilson, D.P., Coplan, P.M., Wainberg, M.A., Blower, S.M. (2008)
PNAS, 105(28):9835-40 [PDF]
Using mathematical modelling to help explain the differential increase in HIV incidence
in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland: the importance of other STIs
Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P., Regan, D.G., Kaldor, J., Law, M.G. (2008)
Sexual Health, 5:169-187 [PDF]
2007
How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa?
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2007)
BMC Medicine, 5(1), 16 [PDF]
2006
Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in
KwaZulu-Natal: The effect of the urban-rural divide
Wilson, D.P., Kahn, J.O., Blower, S.M. (2006)
PNAS, 103(38):14228-14233 [PDF]
Rational choices for allocating antiretrovirals in Africa: treatment equity, epidemiological
efficiency and feasibility
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2006)
PLoS Medicine, 3(3), e160 [PDF]
2005